I'd say "only" $20, because I can rarely bring myself to pay more than $20 for ANY game. Sure, a handful of games disappear completely before getting a price drop. But any somewhat popular game will almost certainly eventually become a player's choice $20 game.
What were the last games I paid full price for? I gave DMC3 the benefit of the doubt and bought it at full price. Before that... Gee, I don't know. I paid full price for R-Type Final, but that was still only $30. (In retrospect, I could have waited) I paid full price for R&C: Up Your Aresnal,
Failing that, it's possible to buy games used. I don't buy many used games, but FO does, and she has trouble even paying the "full" used price. She usually only buys used games when there's a three-for-two sale.
Then I read a message board thread about Shadow of the Colossus. Apparently, the game is can be summed up as
1) You run around a huge, empty stage, doing pretty much nothing...
2) Until after a long time, you eventually stumble upon the boss. Then you climb on its back and kill it.
Then someone popped in and said it was worth $40. Uh, sorry, I think I'll wait.
I guess it seems like I'm just rambling, but to try to come to a single point, but when I hear it said that, "This game is definitely worth paying $[xxx] for!" I'll mentally translate it to "It MIGHT be worth getting later on a discount." (And, again, if a game won't be worth playing later, it isn't worth playing now)
From the perspective of "it's good to support good games", the problem is, I have no idea what'll be a good game until I've beaten in. Looking back, I wouldn't have minded paying full price for Shinobi, but by then it was too late.
I haven't completely ruled out the possibility of taking recommendations from sources whose reputability is unknown, but I do think it's best to approach them with a great deal of caution.
"Perhaps one did not want to be loved so much as to be understood."
-Orwell















